Download the data
Every price and every derived figure on this site, in two files, under a licence that lets you use them. If you would rather check the arithmetic than take it on trust, start here.
The files
- heat-pump-running-cost-by-state.csv — one row per state, 19 columns.
- heat-pump-running-cost-by-state.json — the same rows, plus the assumptions and the stated limitations as structured fields.
All 51 states including the District of Columbia. 45 carry a gas price; the other 6 do not, because EIA has not published a complete December to February residential gas season for them. Prices are the December 2025 to February 2026 mean, pulled .
What the columns mean
| Column | Meaning |
|---|---|
| electricity_usd_per_kwh | EIA residential electricity price, by state, heating season mean. |
| gas_usd_per_therm | EIA residential natural gas, converted from $/Mcf at 1,037 BTU per cubic foot. Empty where EIA has not published a complete season. |
| propane_usd_per_gallon | EIA propane price for the region named in propane_price_area, not for the state. |
| heating_oil_usd_per_gallon | EIA heating oil for the region named in heating_oil_price_area. Published for PADD 1 and 2 only; elsewhere the national figure. |
| annual_heating_degree_days | Census division normal, not a state figure. |
| electricity_to_gas_ratio | Price of a kWh of electricity divided by the price of a kWh worth of gas. |
| breakeven_ratio | The ratio below which the heat pump wins, set by effective COP divided by AFUE. |
| *_usd_per_kwh_heat | Cost to deliver one kWh of heat with that system, after efficiency. |
| verdict_vs_gas_furnace | One of heat_pump_cheaper, incumbent_cheaper, too_close_to_call, no_gas_price_published. |
What the numbers assume
A cold climate heat pump at HSPF2 11.0, giving an effective COP of 2.64 once 10% of delivered heat is attributed to electric resistance backup at COP 1.0. The gas furnace is 95% AFUE, propane 95%, oil 83%. Change any of it on the calculator, or read the methodology for the equation and every constant.
What is wrong with it
Stated here rather than buried, because a dataset with no stated limitations is one you should not trust. Gas standing charges are not modelled, which biases every gas comparison in favour of gas, and the effect grows the better insulated the house is. Propane and heating oil are regional rather than state figures. Heating degree days are division normals. The full list is on the methodology page, and anything this site has got wrong and then fixed is in corrections.
Citing it
HeatPumpMath, Heat pump running cost by US state, December 2025 to February 2026 EIA heating season, retrieved 31 August 2026. https://heatpumpmath.com/data/
Or work it out for your own house
State averages are a starting point, not your bill.
Open the calculator