Heat pump vs gas furnace
The hard case. The heat pump costs less to run in 4 of 45 states and more in 33, and the reason is the price of electricity rather than the climate.
Which heating system is actually cheapest to run
Five common residential heating systems, ranked by what they cost to put one kilowatt hour of heat into a house, computed from EIA state level prices rather than national averages.
The comparisons below all answer the same question in different ways: for one kilowatt hour of heat delivered into your house, how many dollars leave your account?
That framing matters, because heating fuels are sold in units that cannot be compared directly. Gas comes in therms, propane and oil in gallons, electricity in kilowatt hours. Each carries a different amount of energy, and each appliance wastes a different share of it. Converting everything to dollars per delivered kilowatt hour is the only way to line them up.
Ranked by median cost across 45 states
| System | Median $ per kWh of heat | Relative to cheapest |
|---|---|---|
| Natural gas furnace, 95% AFUE | 0.0491 | 1.00x |
| Heat pump, effective COP 2.64 | 0.0594 | 1.21x |
| Propane furnace, 95% AFUE | 0.1013 | 2.06x |
| Heating oil boiler, 83% AFUE | 0.1123 | 2.29x |
| Electric resistance baseboard | 0.1558 | 3.17x |
Median across the 45 states with a complete EIA gas season. Propane and heating oil at national reference prices. Your state will differ, sometimes considerably.
The headline finding. Natural gas is the cheapest common heating fuel in most of the country, and it is the only one that regularly beats a heat pump on running cost. Against propane, heating oil, and electric resistance heat, a heat pump wins in nearly every state. Natural gas is the main heating fuel in 47% of American homes, so slightly more than half do not heat with gas.
Heat pump vs propane furnace
Not close. Propane is trucked and stored rather than piped, and it costs several times more per unit of energy. The heat pump wins in 47 of 51 states.
Heat pump vs oil boiler
The heat pump wins in 44 of 51 states, with the margin narrowest in the Northeast where oil heat is most common and electricity is most expensive.
Heat pump vs electric baseboard
The only comparison with no argument. Same fuel, same price, and the heat pump moves about 2.6 units of heat per unit of electricity against exactly one.
Dual fuel vs a heat pump alone
What the arithmetic actually points to in the 33 states where gas wins: run the heat pump in mild weather and the furnace below the crossover, and never touch resistance backup.