Heat pump running cost in California
In California, a heat pump costs about 55% more to run than a 95% AFUE gas furnace. Against propane, heating oil and electric baseboard the answer is different, and all four are below.
California energy prices, 2025-12, 2026-01, 2026-02
The December 2025 to February 2026 EIA heating season mean, pulled . Every figure on this page is in the CSV and JSON download, published under CC BY 4.0.
| Figure | Value | Source |
|---|---|---|
| Residential electricity | $0.327/kWh | EIA, by state |
| Residential natural gas | $2.22/therm | EIA, by state |
| Propane | $2.58/gal | EIA, United States average |
| Heating oil | $3.82/gal | EIA, United States average |
| Electricity to gas price ratio | 4.31 to 1 | derived |
| Breakeven ratio for this equipment | 2.78 to 1 | derived |
| Annual heating degree days | 3,271 | EIA, PAC division |
California ranks 28 of 45 states by electricity to gas price ratio, where 1 is most favourable to a heat pump.
Cost to deliver one kWh of heat in California
| Current system | Fuel price | $ per kWh heat | Heat pump verdict | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Natural gas furnace | $2.22/therm | 0.0799 | More expensive to run | 55% |
| Propane furnace | $2.58/gallon | 0.1013 | More expensive to run | 22% |
| Heating oil furnace or boiler | $3.82/gallon | 0.1134 | Too close to call | tie |
| Electric resistance (baseboard or furnace) | $0.327/kWh | 0.3274 | Cheaper to run | 62% |
| Heat pump, COP 2.64 | $0.327/kWh | 0.1241 |
Assumes a cold climate heat pump at HSPF2 11.0 with 10% of heat from electric resistance backup. Propane and heating oil are published by EIA regionally rather than by state, so those are the nearest regional figures. Change any of it on the calculator.
Rough monthly cost in California
| System | Winter month | Per year |
|---|---|---|
| Gas furnace, 95% AFUE | $176 | $1,103 |
| Heat pump, effective COP 2.64 | $274 | $1,714 |
An 1,800 sq ft home of typical construction, at 3,271 annual heating degree days for the PAC census division. The square foot coefficient behind this is a rule of thumb rather than a measurement and can be wrong by half in either direction. How this is worked out, and a better method if you have a year of bills.
What this page does not tell you
Running cost only, at state average prices. It excludes equipment and installation cost, rebates, and the fact that a heat pump also replaces an air conditioner. State averages hide large differences between utilities inside California, and this page cannot know your balance point or how much backup heat your system would actually use, which is the input that moves the answer most.
No household data for California yet
Nobody in this dataset has reported from California, or from anywhere else in the Pacific census division. That is a real gap rather than an oversight: almost every household report this site has collected comes from cold climate discussion, and the warmer divisions are barely represented anywhere in public.
It also matters more here than it would in New England. A heat pump in California rarely reaches the temperatures where backup heat takes over, which is the single thing that ruins the arithmetic further north, so the figures on this page are more likely to hold and there is nothing on record to confirm that.
If you run a heat pump in California, a winter month's kWh, your floor area and the month it covers is enough to add a row, and it can be sent here. In the meantime, the dataset as it stands shows what the spread looks like elsewhere, and the winter bill guide covers how to work out whether your own bill is reasonable without a local comparison.
Where to go from here
Because gas wins on running cost in California, the question worth asking is not whether to switch but whether a dual fuel system beats both, which it usually does, and where its crossover temperature belongs.
If you already have a heat pump and the bill is higher than you expected, start with the four things that make a winter bill run high and how to tell which one is yours. If somebody has told you your usage is insane, the questions people actually ask when the bill arrives covers what that comparison is usually missing.
If you are still choosing, the comparison depends on what you are replacing: a gas furnace, propane, heating oil, or electric baseboards, where the heat pump wins by a wide margin in every state including this one.
And if you want to check the arithmetic rather than take it, every constant and limitation is listed, the data is rebuilt from EIA on a documented schedule, and the things this site has got wrong are published rather than quietly edited.
The reasoning behind these numbers
The verdict at the top of this page turns on one threshold, and that threshold is set by your equipment rather than by your climate, which is the single most misunderstood thing about heat pump running cost. The price it is compared against comes from EIA, averaged across December to February, and using any other window inflates the gas price enough to flip the verdict in fifteen states. This site published that mistake before catching it.